Institutional Learning and Change Initiative

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Abstract:

The third in a series of global studies, this report (covering 1988-2002) documents the adoption and diffusion of modern wheat varieties in the developing world and assesses the benefi ts generated by international wheat breeding efforts. It updates the fi ndings and confi rms the three major conclusions of the two earlier studies, and extends the coverage to include many countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. In the post-Green Revolution era, CIMMYT's improved germplasm continues to be used extensively by breeding programs in developing countries, and public investment in international wheat breeding research continues to generate high rates of return. Measured in terms of varietal releases, wheat breeding programs in developing countries continue to be very productive. Between 1988 and 2002, public national research organizations and private seed companies in the developing world released nearly 1,700 wheat varieties. The international wheat breeding system continues to be dominated by public breeding programs, but private companies also engage in wheat breeding in a number of developing countries. More than 75% of protected cultivars (those with plant breeding rights) in South America have CIMMYT ancestry. Of the area planted to wheat in the surveyed countries, 64% was sown to varieties containing CIMMYT-related germplasm, and 24% of varieties in those countries were derived from CIMMYT crosses. A simple economic surplus model was used to estimate the value of additional grain production attributable to the adoption of modern wheat varieties in developing countries. Depending on the stringency of the method used, the value of additional grain ranges from US$ 2.0 to 6.1 billion per year (2002 dollars). The extensive use of CIMMYT germplasm by public and private breeding programs, combined with the widespread adoption of CIMMYT-derived varieties, generates signifi cant benefi ts. Using the most conservative rule for attributing credit to CIMMYT (CIMMYT cross), the annual benefi ts associated with the use of CIMMYT-derived germplasm range from US$ 0.5 to 1.5 billion (2002 dollars), a huge return on CIMMYT's annual investment (US$ 9-11 million in 2002 dollars) in wheat improvement research.